Scandinavian Airlines (SAS) announced it will cancel at least 1,000 flights in April due to unprecedented fuel cost increases stemming from the Middle East conflict that has closed the Strait of Hormuz, marking the latest major airline to succumb to the global aviation crisis that has already cancelled over 18,000 flights worldwide.
SAS CEO Anko van der Werff confirmed the cancellations in a statement to Norwegian media, citing the dramatic surge in aviation fuel prices that have doubled from $85-90 per barrel to $150-200 per barrel—a staggering 122% increase—following Iran's closure of the critical Strait of Hormuz waterway.
"The price of aviation fuel has doubled in just ten days. While we are doing everything we can to absorb cost increases, this is a shock that directly impacts the aviation industry," van der Werff told Dagens Industri. "Increases of this magnitude make it necessary to react in order to maintain stable and reliable operations."
Impact on Routes and Operations
The cancellations will primarily affect destinations with multiple daily departures, according to van der Werff. SAS Communications Director Alexandra Lindgren Kaoukji confirmed that affected customers are being informed on a rolling basis as the airline works to minimize disruption.
Beyond the April cancellations, SAS has already suspended its routes to Tel Aviv and Beirut, and faces potential delays to the planned launch of a new Copenhagen-to-Dubai route scheduled for October. The Tel Aviv and Beirut suspensions are part of broader industry-wide cancellations affecting Middle Eastern destinations due to ongoing airspace closures.
The crisis represents a significant escalation of challenges facing Scandinavian aviation, as fuel costs now account for 25-30% of total flight expenses. With approximately one-third of Europe's jet fuel supply originating from the Gulf region, airlines have limited options to source cheaper alternatives.
Global Context of Aviation Crisis
SAS's announcement comes amid the most severe global aviation disruption since the COVID-19 pandemic, with eight countries—Iran, Iraq, Israel, UAE, Qatar, Syria, Kuwait, and Bahrain—simultaneously closing their airspace following escalating military operations. The crisis has particularly impacted Dubai International Airport, the world's busiest with 86 million passengers annually, which remains completely shut down due to missile damage.
Major international carriers including Emirates, Air France-KLM, Wizz Air, and Bulgaria Air have suspended operations indefinitely, creating cascading effects throughout the global aviation network. The Middle East serves as a critical hub for Europe-Asia connections, making the closures particularly disruptive to long-haul routes.
"This represents the most comprehensive regional aviation disruption in modern history, exceeding even the 1991 Gulf War in scope and impact."
— Aviation Industry Analyst
Energy Crisis Driving Fuel Costs
The aviation fuel crisis stems from Iran's Revolutionary Guard declaring the Strait of Hormuz "unsafe for shipping," effectively blocking 40% of global seaborne oil transit through the 21-mile waterway. Over 150 oil and liquefied natural gas tankers worth billions in cargo remain stranded in the Persian Gulf as major shipping companies Maersk and MSC have suspended operations.
Oil prices have surged past $100 per barrel for the first time since 2022, with Brent crude peaking at $119.50 and West Texas Intermediate reaching $108.15—an 18.98% single-day jump that represents the largest increase on record. Natural gas prices have exploded by 24% in Europe and 78% in the United States.
The International Energy Agency has responded with the largest strategic petroleum reserve release in its 50-year history, deploying 400 million barrels from 32 countries—double the amount released during the 2022 Ukraine crisis. Japan is contributing 80 million barrels, marking the first time since the 2011 Fukushima disaster that the country has tapped its strategic reserves.
Industry-Wide Response
SAS joins a growing list of airlines implementing emergency measures to cope with soaring fuel costs. Air France-KLM has added 50 euros to economy class long-haul tickets and 200 euros to business class fares. Australian carriers Qantas and Air New Zealand have announced fare increases, while Air New Zealand has cancelled over 1,000 flights due to fuel price concerns.
Norwegian Air, despite implementing surcharges alongside other carriers, has been partially protected through advanced fuel hedging strategies. However, industry experts warn that hedging contracts will eventually expire, leaving all carriers vulnerable to sustained high prices.
Airlines are also implementing complex operational adaptations, including enhanced fuel loading to avoid refueling in affected regions, alternative routing strategies using Caribbean stopovers for trans-Pacific flights, and dramatically reduced passenger capacity on longer routes to accommodate additional fuel requirements.
Consumer and Economic Impact
The crisis extends far beyond aviation, with consumer fuel prices rising dramatically across Europe. Sweden faces electricity increases of 10-20 öre per kilowatt-hour and gasoline increases of 1-2 kronor per liter, with the Malmö region most exposed due to continental integration. Ireland has seen heating oil prices surge by 40% in a single week, approaching €2 per liter.
Financial markets have crashed globally, with Pakistan's KSE-100 index recording its largest single-day decline in history at -8.97%, while South Korea's KOSPI fell 12% triggering circuit breakers. The Korean won has fallen to a 17-year low as foreign capital flees emerging markets.
Several governments have activated emergency protocols. France has deployed 500 fuel station inspectors to prevent price manipulation, while Romania is developing five different scenarios for diesel price caps. Hungary has implemented immediate price caps on gasoline and diesel.
Diplomatic and Geopolitical Context
The current crisis stems from the complete breakdown of US-Iran nuclear negotiations, despite achieving what experts called "broad agreement on guiding principles"—the most progress since the 2018 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) collapse. However, fundamental disagreements over scope proved insurmountable, with Iran excluding ballistic missiles and proxy groups as "red lines" while the US demanded comprehensive reforms including missiles, armed groups, and human rights.
This diplomatic failure led to "Operation Epic Fury," described as the largest US-Israeli coordinated military operation since 2003, prompting Iran's "Operation True Promise 4" retaliation that has systematically targeted Gulf state infrastructure and closed the Strait of Hormuz.
The crisis occurs within a broader context of nuclear governance challenges, as the New START treaty between the US and Russia expired on February 5, marking the first time in over 50 years that the two nuclear superpowers operate without arms control constraints. Iran continues uranium enrichment at 60% purity with over 400 kilograms of weapons-grade material, approaching the threshold for multiple nuclear weapons.
Recovery Timeline and Industry Transformation
Unlike weather-related disruptions with predictable recovery timelines, the current crisis depends entirely on military operations resolution and diplomatic tensions normalization. Airlines are conducting daily operational reviews but cannot make long-term scheduling decisions while multiple airspaces remain closed.
Industry experts describe the situation as template-setting for 21st-century aviation crisis management, forcing fundamental reconsideration of route planning, risk assessment, and over-dependence on Middle Eastern hubs. Enhanced contingency planning and route diversification have become urgent priorities as the crisis exposes the vulnerability of modern transportation networks to geopolitical instability.
"This crisis represents the most severe energy security challenge in decades, exposing dangerous over-dependence on single strategic chokepoints."
— Samuel Ciszuk, Energy Security Analyst
Looking Ahead
The SAS cancellations represent just the beginning of what industry analysts predict will be widespread flight reductions across European airlines. Qatar's Energy Minister Saad Al Kaabi has warned that Gulf states may declare force majeure "within weeks" if oil approaches $150 per barrel, which would "bring down economies around the world."
For passengers, the crisis means not only cancelled flights but also significantly higher airfares when service resumes. Travel insurance companies are also excluding war-related cancellations, leaving individual travelers financially exposed and driving a shift toward comprehensive package tours over independent travel.
The aviation industry faces fundamental questions about global connectivity versus security-conscious regional patterns. The crisis has accelerated discussions about enhanced security screening, mandatory conflict-coverage insurance, and pre-approval for high-risk destinations becoming standard features of international travel.
As the conflict enters its third week with no clear resolution in sight, the March 2026 crisis is shaping up to be a watershed moment that will influence aviation policy and emergency planning for decades to come. The greatest test of multilateral cooperation in the modern era continues to unfold, with implications extending far beyond the immediate disruption to reshape how the industry manages geopolitical risk in an increasingly volatile world.